TABS AccuBase is a model that dramatically improves the accuracy of estimates of baseline sales (baseline sales are defined as sales in the absence of any promotional activity).
It is generally recognized by analytics professionals in CPG that the current industry models for baseline sales are deeply flawed. They exhibit three undesirable characteristics:
- Baseline estimates exhibit “phantom” spikes during promotional weeks. This is intuitively and theoretically impossible.
- Baseline estimates exhibit high week-to-week volatility and variability. Again, we should expect to see a relatively stable estimate of baseline sales week-to-week.
- Baseline sales often are at levels well below actual sales for extended periods, and there is no promotion or pricing activity that explains this gap.
TABS AccuBase addresses all of these problems and even corrects for other shortcoming in industry baseline technology. TABS AccuBase only requires Unit Sales and Average Price to provide vast improvements in forecasting accuracy. TABS AccuBase provides the following benefits:
- Higher Accuracy: No Phantom Spikes, Less Weekly Volatility and persistent understatement of baseline.
- Captures Structural Changes in Baseline Sales such as seasonality, distribution changes or consumption shocks.
- Extendable to All POS Sources: it is not just reliant on the SymphonyIRI/Nielsen/SPINS tracking universe. You can have a baseline model for Specialty Outlets or any other data source with scanner data.
- Reliable for Shipment Data: TABS AccuBase has been validated for factory shipments for high velocity items, and we are making great progress on validating AccuBase for shipment data on all products.
- Extendable to All Countries: Most countries do not have baseline data available through their suppliers. TABS AccuBase can be a valuable overlay to your data package in these markets.
- Not reliant on expensive causal metrics: Because we only need Units and Price, we can deliver these estimates without the need for an expensive data gathering infrastructure.
- Creates Base Price and Base Units: The model fixes accuracy issues in both Everyday Price as well as Base Units.
- Underwent rigorous academic reviews: TABS AccuBase has been published in academic journals and was a core component of Dr. Kurt Jetta’s groundbreaking doctoral thesis: A Theory of Retail Price Promotion Using Economic Foundations: It’s All Incremental.